Expansive AI
There are few narratives on the impact of AI*. I’d like to propose 1 more.
- AI is a Sustaining technology
- AI is a Disruptive technology
Sustaining Technology
Under this view, advantage lies with the incumbent. Existing businesses benefit due to their distribution, proprietary datasets, and infrastructure advantages. AI is a faster horse.
A sustaining technology will uphold power-structures. Mag-7 will continue growing rapidly.
Disruptive Technology
Under this view, existing businesses are at a disadvantage due to their business model’s core assumptions on cost-of-labor. As AI advances and commoditizes skilled labor, new business models will dominate, challenging status-quo. AI is an automobile.
A disruptive technology (e.g. internet) will transform and reformulate power structures. We will see a different Mag-7, or Mag-10 in the next decade.
In my view, the game plays out in stages. It starts off as sustaining-technology, and if the science advances to solve reasoning and planning beyond a certain point, we will end up with a substantially disruptive technology.
However, there is an orthogonal dimension worth considering: Whether it is zero-sum or positive-sum game. The fundamental bull-case for technology is that it is deflationary AND expansive.
Expansive Technology
Under this view, AI technology expands the market for digital-experiences and digital-work. It has a positive-sum dynamic. In this view, AI is not a mere 20% productivity boost, it allows you to {consume, create, monetize} what you wouldn’t otherwise to a net-positive level. This effect kicks-in even before getting reasoning agents to work.
Imagine when anyone can create high-quality music or tell a compelling story through videos. Entertainment and Social Media may expand its reach and monetization capability. When anyone can code, analyze data, and build, we can try-out 1000x more ideas in the market and solve problems that were out of reach. Imagine when more people have access to world-class scientific and research tools. Humanity’s appetite for entertainment and advancement of knowledge is endless, with an unbounded demand. There are plenty of emerging markets that would benefit disproportionately from a deflationary technology, further propelling their growth, and subsequently, their purchase-power, propelling the flywheel of economic growth.
Whether AI-wave leads to existing or new power structures in the technology industry, the expansiveness nature of this technology will lead to many new niche entrants, each having its own impact. That said, the race of Intelligence-as-a-platform is still up for grabs.
* when I refer to AI*, I mean AI tech more than DeepLearning, including other optimization algorithms, RL type search and decision making.